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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.